GM electric vehicles have some things Tesla’s don’t. For one, EPA ranges at highway speeds.
Actually, scratch that. GM’s EV lineup has a lot of things Tesla vehicles don’t.
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EPA rated range at highway speeds.
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More choices. With Tesla, you have a pseudo SUV, a good sedan, a high-performance pseudo SUV, a high-performance sedan, and a decent pickup. GM offers full-sized SUVs, long-range pickups, smaller SUVs (though they messed up the Blazer EV), SUV-wagons (like the Lyriq), and more like the Tahoe.
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Ultium 20 and 24 module EVs charge better on superchargers than Tesla’s own Cybertruck. They maintain 200kW until 70%, which is pretty incredible.
Between May 2023 and May 2024, Tesla sold around 618k cars in the US. If you add the Cybertruck’s full-volume production, that’s roughly 875k total EV sales.
So, with all these options, could GM outsell Tesla by 2030, even with its single-digit profitability? With J3400 becoming the charging standard, I’m thinking other charging providers might be more reliable than what they’ve offered with CCS. GM plans to standardize the J3400 charging port by mid-2025, which should help.
Right now, GM is already outselling Ford in EVs. While the gap between Tesla and GM is still huge (Tesla sits at about 155-165k in sales while GM is at 32k in the US), the difference is still substantial.
Tesla is currently selling FIVE times more EVs than GM. That’s the gap between the #1 and #2.
But, could GM continue growing to reach 1 million EV sales per year by 2030, leaving Tesla at #2 with around 875k?
I’d say there’s about a 30% chance, yes.
Here’s a potential pathway to 1,000,000 EVs by 2030:
2024: ~100k
2025: ~200k
2026: ~400k (break-even)
2027: ~550k (EBITDA positive)
2028: ~650k (low single-digit net income)
2029: ~800k (single-digit net income)
2030: ~1,000k (sustained profitability moving forward).