Will GM end up selling more EVs in US/CAN across its brands than Tesla by 2030?

GM electric vehicles have some things Tesla’s don’t. For one, EPA ranges at highway speeds.

Actually, scratch that. GM’s EV lineup has a lot of things Tesla vehicles don’t.

  1. EPA rated range at highway speeds.

  2. More choices. With Tesla, you have a pseudo SUV, a good sedan, a high-performance pseudo SUV, a high-performance sedan, and a decent pickup. GM offers full-sized SUVs, long-range pickups, smaller SUVs (though they messed up the Blazer EV), SUV-wagons (like the Lyriq), and more like the Tahoe.

  3. Ultium 20 and 24 module EVs charge better on superchargers than Tesla’s own Cybertruck. They maintain 200kW until 70%, which is pretty incredible.

Between May 2023 and May 2024, Tesla sold around 618k cars in the US. If you add the Cybertruck’s full-volume production, that’s roughly 875k total EV sales.

So, with all these options, could GM outsell Tesla by 2030, even with its single-digit profitability? With J3400 becoming the charging standard, I’m thinking other charging providers might be more reliable than what they’ve offered with CCS. GM plans to standardize the J3400 charging port by mid-2025, which should help.

Right now, GM is already outselling Ford in EVs. While the gap between Tesla and GM is still huge (Tesla sits at about 155-165k in sales while GM is at 32k in the US), the difference is still substantial.

Tesla is currently selling FIVE times more EVs than GM. That’s the gap between the #1 and #2.

But, could GM continue growing to reach 1 million EV sales per year by 2030, leaving Tesla at #2 with around 875k?

I’d say there’s about a 30% chance, yes.

Here’s a potential pathway to 1,000,000 EVs by 2030:

2024: ~100k

2025: ~200k

2026: ~400k (break-even)

2027: ~550k (EBITDA positive)

2028: ~650k (low single-digit net income)

2029: ~800k (single-digit net income)

2030: ~1,000k (sustained profitability moving forward).

I think GM makes the least intimidating electric cars. They feel more like traditional gas cars than Teslas, making them easier to adjust to. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but I know people who wouldn’t have considered an EV before but are now open to it because of cars like the Equinox. I have a Model Y and love it, but let’s be real, its shape and minimalist interior with just a big screen can be a bit too extreme for some folks. Plus, Elon being so vocal about his views doesn’t help.

@Christopher
Totally agree! GM’s vehicles like the Equinox, and even other brands like Ford and Hyundai/Kia, offer features that make the transition from gas to electric easier. I’m talking about things like rain sensors, 360-degree cameras, rear traffic sensors, actual buttons for climate control, turn signal stalks, a volume knob that the passenger can use, and a speedometer in front of the driver.

These might not matter to Tesla buyers, and that’s fine! But for people used to traditional cars, these little details make EVs less intimidating.

@jabali
Yeah, that stuff definitely makes a difference! Having those familiar features can make the switch to an EV much smoother for a lot of people. Tesla’s minimalism isn’t for everyone.

@Christopher
Nice take. It’s true that the traditional features make it an easier adjustment for many folks.

@Christopher
This is a great point. My friends often think my Bolt EUV is a hybrid, and I honestly don’t mind. Not everyone is a car enthusiast, and a lot of my friends only care if the car works and gets them from A to B. The whole ‘futuristic spaceship on wheels’ thing isn’t really their vibe.

@Peggy
I had a Volt, and the confusion between Bolt and Volt is real. Most people don’t even know the difference, and they don’t really understand what a plug-in hybrid is.

@Christopher
I love tactile controls. It’s not just cars that are suffering from bad design choices. On my phone, I’d love a dedicated button for orientation lock instead of using software. Also, why do the power button and volume buttons feel the same and are right next to each other? It’s a mystery of bad design.

@Connie
Don’t even get me started on how I have to use a touchscreen to open my glove compartment in a Tesla. It’s like they’re trying to turn cars into iPhones.

MAKENA said:
@Connie
Don’t even get me started on how I have to use a touchscreen to open my glove compartment in a Tesla. It’s like they’re trying to turn cars into iPhones.

Right?! And for some basic stuff, too. It’s faster to just do it manually.

@Christopher
From a design standpoint, maybe GM has the edge. But I think software matters more, and GM still lags behind in that department.

jessicah said:
@Christopher
From a design standpoint, maybe GM has the edge. But I think software matters more, and GM still lags behind in that department.

Yeah, but software can’t fix the lack of physical controls. People still want real buttons for basic things like volume and turn signals, and GM gets that.

@Robert
True, but the software behind those physical controls matters, too. I hated the idea of Tesla’s turn signals, but after driving without them, it wasn’t as bad as I thought.

@Robert
It’s funny how people complain about Tesla not having a volume knob when there’s literally a wheel by your thumb to adjust it!

kwame said:
@Robert
It’s funny how people complain about Tesla not having a volume knob when there’s literally a wheel by your thumb to adjust it!

That’s great for the driver, but what about the passenger? It’s stuff like this that makes some people prefer traditional controls.

@Maria
Yeah, and I hate that some climate controls are only on the screen. Not everything needs to be digital.

jessicah said:
@Christopher
From a design standpoint, maybe GM has the edge. But I think software matters more, and GM still lags behind in that department.

I disagree. You shouldn’t need to interact with the car’s infotainment that much while driving. The speed of the system matters, but it’s not the most important thing.

@zendaya
Software updates matter, though. Tesla’s been doing over-the-air updates for years, and it makes a big difference. GM is still behind in that area.

With J3400 becoming the charging standard, I’m hoping other charging networks will be more reliable than CCS. GM’s switching to this port in 2025, and I think it’ll help a lot.

Thomas said:
With J3400 becoming the charging standard, I’m hoping other charging networks will be more reliable than CCS. GM’s switching to this port in 2025, and I think it’ll help a lot.

The real benefit is being able to use Tesla’s network without an adapter. EA sucks, and I agree, it’s not really about the connector.