I think EV development is going to slow down. Don’t expect huge leaps in range and speed like we’ve seen in the past decade.
It’s like smartphones—at first, there were huge changes every year, but now it’s just about small upgrades.
BYD might face challenges from tariffs, and if they can’t break into the U.S. market, it’ll be a hard road ahead.
@Christopher
It’s not that simple. If the U.S. were to place a tariff on EVs made in Mexico, it would mean renegotiating NAFTA all over again. Plus, plenty of non-Chinese automakers also make vehicles there, so it wouldn’t just affect BYD. Even if you tried to single out ‘Chinese-owned’ brands, that would hurt companies like Volvo, and who knows how many more brands China will own in the future. It’ll be tough to stop Chinese automakers from entering the U.S. market.
Tesla will keep saying FSD is almost ready, and Toyota will still be promising a hydrogen future. Meanwhile, German automakers will claim they were right to stick with ICE for so long.
sorphia said:
Tesla will keep saying FSD is almost ready, and Toyota will still be promising a hydrogen future. Meanwhile, German automakers will claim they were right to stick with ICE for so long.
Most accurate prediction here!
@Nathan
Thanks!
On the one hand, I’m amazed by technology these days—AI, self-driving cars, and reusable rockets are the stuff of sci-fi. Even little things like ride-sharing and streaming music blow my mind.
But on the other hand, I’ve become skeptical of predictions, especially around EVs. A lot of predictions from the past 10-15 years never panned out.
For example, here are some predictions from 5 years ago:
- Tesla’s Robotaxi program in 2020 (didn’t happen).
- Mercedes self-driving cars by 2020 (nope).
- Volkswagen becoming the world leader in EVs by 2018 (not quite).
- Flying cars predicted in two years (still waiting!).
If there’s one thing we can be sure of, it’s that predictions are often wrong.
@Randy
I’m not a Musk fan at all, and none of my predictions were based on him. I’m thinking more about Waymo when I talk about self-driving cars. I just want to get a sense of what the world will look like in the next decade so I can prepare for it.
It’s always funny to see people predict huge changes in the auto industry when they’re not as familiar with how slow things actually move.
jessicah said:
It’s always funny to see people predict huge changes in the auto industry when they’re not as familiar with how slow things actually move.
I welcome the challenge! Which part do you think is unrealistic?
@olivia
Your plan is solid, but I don’t think FSD will be fully realized in 5 or even 10 years. It’s just too complicated, and not using things like LIDAR makes it even harder.
Thomas said:
@olivia
Your plan is solid, but I don’t think FSD will be fully realized in 5 or even 10 years. It’s just too complicated, and not using things like LIDAR makes it even harder.
I was referring to FSD in major cities, like what Waymo is doing already. Phoenix, LA, and San Francisco have self-driving taxis that work fine. In 5-10 years, I think we’ll see more cities making roads FSD-friendly, making it easier for the tech to spread.
@olivia
I saw a video of a Waymo car stuck at a light during a power outage. It just froze and didn’t know what to do.
martin said:
@olivia
I saw a video of a Waymo car stuck at a light during a power outage. It just froze and didn’t know what to do.
I saw a video where it worked perfectly fine. Your comment doesn’t really mean much.
@olivia
In 5-10 years, I see GM and Ford doing okay, but Stellantis might fall apart. Toyota and Honda will keep their share. Tesla will slow down, and Rivian will grow but still face challenges. FSD will be limited to testing and won’t be widely used yet. ICE vehicles will still be around, but EVs will gain more ground. Hybrids will remain popular as a middle-ground option, and hydrogen will remain mostly a dream.
@jessicah
I’m not sure EVs will make up 50% of sales in the next 10 years unless there’s a massive increase. It’s under 10% now, so we’d need a 4% growth rate every year.
Peggy said:
@jessicah
I’m not sure EVs will make up 50% of sales in the next 10 years unless there’s a massive increase. It’s under 10% now, so we’d need a 4% growth rate every year.
The economics of manufacturing EVs will push things in that direction. Once EVs become cheaper to make and own than gas cars, there’s no stopping it.
@jessicah
GM and Ford will be fine? Ford’s CEO recently said it’s going to be tough for Western car companies to compete with China’s tech. China already makes 30% of the world’s cars.
@jessicah
Waymo is already doing what I’d consider Level 4 FSD in some cities. Why is it so far-fetched to think they’ll expand to more major cities in the next 5-10 years?
olivia said:
@jessicah
Waymo is already doing what I’d consider Level 4 FSD in some cities. Why is it so far-fetched to think they’ll expand to more major cities in the next 5-10 years?
Only Tesla calls it ‘Full Self Driving.’ Waymo and Cruise are ahead of Tesla, but they’re still geofenced and heavily supervised. In 5 years, they’ll expand, but regulations will slow things down.
@jessicah
Got it, didn’t realize FSD was a Tesla term.