I’d love to hear from those who know more about the latest developments in EV technologies, especially when it comes to batteries. Here’s how I think things will play out, from a North American perspective:
- In 5-10 years, today’s battery technology will seem outdated, similar to how the 2014 Nissan Leaf looks compared to modern EVs. Battery improvements will be drastic.
- Chinese automakers, like BYD, will dominate the global market with affordable and high-quality vehicles. They’ll set up factories in places like Mexico and Canada to get around tariffs. American automakers, except for brands like Tesla and Rivian, will struggle to keep up. Korean and Japanese manufacturers will survive but won’t gain the same traction as Chinese EVs.
- Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be widely available in most major cities across North America and Europe. Waymo and companies like Cybercab will compete with Uber, offering driverless ride-hailing services.
- ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles will still be around, but prices will drop significantly. Most manufacturers will offer hybrids across their entire lineup.
- Toyota will continue to push hydrogen as the future, even though the rest of the industry will be focused on battery technology.
@Imani
Yeah, I can totally see SAIC or another company rolling out solid-state batteries for mass production while Toyota keeps saying they’re ‘almost ready.’
There’s a big difference between 5 and 10 years. In 5 years, I don’t think we’ll see that many big changes. Batteries might get a little cheaper, but I don’t think we’ll see today’s technology being called ‘antique’ for cars that already have a good range (400km+ in real-world driving).
Most improvements in the short term will be about lowering costs. Higher-density batteries will still be expensive for a few years (think solid-state), so mid-market cars will get cheaper, but not significantly longer range anytime soon.
As for FSD, I don’t think it will handle the complexity of busy European cities, especially with bikes and pedestrians everywhere. It’ll take longer to deal with adverse weather, too. That’s why most tests are done in the U.S. and sunny places.
10 years is a long time, though, and by then, who knows? Anything could happen.
Gabriel said:
The 2014 Nissan Leaf was outdated even back then, but at least it was affordable at $29k.
Outdated compared to what? In Canada, we didn’t have many EV options in 2014. The Tesla Model S was new and way more expensive. The Kia Soul EV was worse, and it barely sold. The BMW i3 was interesting but didn’t really have better battery tech. The Leaf was second only to the Model S, and for the average buyer, it was the best choice back then. If I went back in time to 2014, I’d probably still pick the Leaf.
@olivia
True, but back then, the Leaf was a big deal. It was one of the only affordable EVs. The Model S and Kia Soul weren’t really options for most people. The Leaf had its flaws, but it was groundbreaking for its time.
@olivia
Back then, I don’t think automakers were really trying to make serious EVs like they are now. The infrastructure wasn’t there, so it didn’t make sense to put in huge, expensive batteries. The Leaf was a stepping stone, but we’re in a completely different place now.
Let’s look at the last 5 years: Chevy Bolt, 2nd-gen Nissan Leaf, and the Tesla Model 3, X, and S were already on the market. Ford was working on the Mach-E, Lightning, and E-Transit. There was no heat pump or Gigacastings, and FSD wasn’t a thing yet. Battery cells were more expensive, and China was quietly letting Tesla build Gigafactory 3 in record time.
Now: There are more models to choose from. Supercharger networks are expanding and opening to other brands. Cybertruck has 800-volt architecture and drive-by-wire tech.
In 5 years: Cells will get cheaper, China will continue to dominate, and the dealer sales model might collapse. ICE cars will still be around, but demand will fall. It’s going to be an interesting decade.
Battery technology will improve, offering faster charging and more energy at a lower cost.
Chinese automakers will push prices down by building in Mexico and selling in the U.S.
FSD will get a bad rap after some high-profile accidents, but it’ll still be statistically safer than human drivers.
Extended Range EVs (EREVs) will gain popularity in areas where electricity is hard to come by. A small ICE that charges the battery, not powering the car directly, will help extend the range.
ICE vehicles will stick around where electricity is scarce, and gas prices will stabilize as demand drops.